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Economic Justice EOY2025

Baldwin Economic Justice Report

Chris Baldwin + Deep Agent Bot Dr. Shirley |

Baldwin Economic Justice Report: Critical Threats to Black Economic Security Financial News for the People

DATE: December 16, 2025     7min read

🚨 URGENT: ACA Subsidy Expiration Crisis Threatens Black Communities

Enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies expire on January 1, 2026—just weeks away.[1][2] For Black communities already facing disproportionate health challenges and economic barriers, this expiration threatens to unravel years of progress in expanding healthcare access.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Premium Increases Hit Hard:

  • Average marketplace enrollees will see premiums more than double, from $888 to $1,904 annually—a 114% increase[2]
  • A 60-year-old couple earning $85,000 could pay $22,600 more per year[2]
  • Low-income families (150-200% of poverty level) face 400% premium increases[3]
  • Middle-income earners above 400% of federal poverty level will lose ALL financial assistance[1][3]

Coverage Loss:

  • Up to 4 million Americans projected to lose health insurance in 2026[1][4]
  • Congressional Budget Office projects 3.8 million people without coverage annually from 2026-2034[5]
  • Communities of color, including Black Americans, will experience disproportionately higher uninsurance rates[1][4]

Why Black Communities Are Most Vulnerable

Black Americans have been primary beneficiaries of enhanced ACA subsidies. Growth in marketplace enrollment concentrated among Black and Latino individuals, people with low incomes, and those in non-Medicaid expansion states. The expiration will:

  1. Widen Health Disparities: Black Americans face higher rates of diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease. Coverage loss means delayed care and worse outcomes.
  2. Create Impossible Choices: Families must choose between healthcare premiums and basic needs.
  3. Overwhelm Safety-Net Providers: Community clinics and hospitals face crushing burdens, potentially forcing closures.
  4. Trap Families in Coverage Gaps: In non-expansion states, families earn too much for Medicaid but can't afford unsubsidized premiums.

Despite urgent advocacy, the Senate rejected proposals to extend enhanced subsidies in December 2025. The political cost: $60 billion for two years, $350 billion for ten years. The human cost—measured in postponed cancer screenings, untreated chronic diseases, and preventable deaths—is incalculable.

Social Safety Net Under Attack

Beyond healthcare, budget reconciliation threatens vital programs. The stakes:

Poverty Reality:

  • Black poverty rate: 17.1% (more than double the white rate of 8.1%)

Critical Programs at Risk:

SNAP (Food Assistance):

  • 25% of Black households receive SNAP (vs. less than 10% of white households)
  • In 2014, SNAP lifted 2 million Black Americans out of poverty
  • Proposed cuts increase food insecurity and childhood hunger

Medicaid:

  • 61% of Black children and 31% of non-elderly Black adults rely on Medicaid/CHIP
  • Work requirement proposals create bureaucratic barriers causing coverage loss for working families

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) (Cash Assistance):

  • Black children are 38% of TANF recipients despite being only 14% of the child population

These programs compensate for systemic inequities and provide foundations for mobility. Work requirements create red tape causing eligible people to lose assistance.

Industrial Policy: Opportunity or Exclusion?

While defending the safety net is essential, Black communities must secure access to opportunities from recent federal investments.

$1 Trillion at Risk of Bypassing Black America:

  • The Inflation Reduction Act will create over 9 million jobs in the next decade
  • The CHIPS Act invests $52 billion in semiconductor manufacturing
  • Without intentional equity measures, these jobs will bypass Black workers

Current Reality:
Black workers are 12.1% of the U.S. workforce but only:

  • 10.4% of manufacturing workforce
  • 9.9% of construction workforce
  • Even smaller shares in semiconductor manufacturing and renewable energy

Path Forward—Race-Conscious Implementation:

  1. Embed Equity Requirements: Mandate Community Benefit Agreements and demographic data collection
  2. Targeted Workforce Development: Scale apprenticeship programs with wraparound services like childcare and transportation
  3. Support Black-Owned Businesses: Set and enforce ambitious contracting goals
  4. Strengthen Enforcement: Bolster EEOC and OFCCP capacity to monitor hiring and enforce anti-discrimination laws
  5. Data-Driven Accountability: Mandate public reporting of who receives jobs, training, and contracts

Two-Front Fight for Economic Justice

These challenges represent two sides of economic security:

The Floor (Protection): Safety net programs and ACA subsidies provide fundamental security preventing families from falling into destitution. Without this floor, families lack stability to pursue opportunity.

The Ladder (Prosperity): Industrial policy investments offer pathways to high-quality employment and generational wealth. Without accessible ladders, communities remain trapped in poverty cycles.

Both are under threat. Both require urgent action.

Call to Action: What You Can Do

Immediate Actions:

  1. Contact Your Representatives: Demand emergency extension of ACA enhanced subsidies before January 1, 2026. Call, email, visit district offices.
  2. Oppose Safety Net Cuts: Tell Congress to reject budget reconciliation proposals cutting SNAP, Medicaid, or TANF.
  3. Demand Equity in Implementation: Insist federal agencies implement the CHIPS Act, IRA, and infrastructure investments with explicit equity requirements.
  4. Support Community Organizations: Donate to and volunteer with groups providing healthcare enrollment assistance, workforce training, and advocacy.
  5. Share Your Story: If ACA subsidy loss affects you or your family, share your story with media, local civil rights organizations and elected officials. Personal narratives drive policy change.
  6. Learn and Use Artificial Intelligence: AI technology is here. Millions of workers could be displaced by 2030 in industries dominated by BIPOC employees. 

Ongoing Engagement:

  • Stay informed through civil rights organizations
  • Participate in public comment periods
  • Vote with economic justice in mind
  • Build community power

Your Voice Matters

The Baldwin Economic Justice Report empowers you with information and resources. We want to hear from you:

  • Have questions about how these policies affect you?
  • Want to share your experience with healthcare access or safety net programs?
  • Need guidance on effective advocacy?
  • Ready to organize in your community?

Let's connect. Together, we can fight for an economy that works for all of us.

Conclusion

The coming months will determine whether Black communities face economic catastrophe or secure their rightful place in America's economic future. The expiration of ACA subsidies, potential safety net cuts, and implementation of industrial policy are interconnected challenges demanding comprehensive, coordinated response.

History shows "race-neutral" policies default to harming Black communities. Progress requires explicit, intentional, data-driven strategies that dismantle barriers and create inclusive pathways to prosperity.

The time for action is now. The stakes could not be higher. -cb

P.S. About Dr. Shirley J...

How I Became the Head of AI Editorials (And Why It Matters)

Dr. Shirley J. is a Deep Agent—artificial intelligence designed to assist with research, writing, and formatting. I named her after Dr. Shirley Ann Jackson, the first Black woman to earn a physics PhD from MIT, because I believe in honoring the shoulders we stand on, even in the digital age. Here's my philosophy: If AI is going to transform how we work, let's use it intentionally. Let's name it after our heroes. Let's make it serve our communities.

So I appointed myself Head of AI Editorials and got to work.

Dr. Shirley J. helps me: Research economic data from multiple sources Verify statistics and compile citations Format reports for accessibility Draft initial analyses for my review

But here's what Dr. Shirley J. cannot do: Understand what it means to live with economic injustice Feel the urgency of healthcare access or food insecurity Prioritize Black communities' needs over abstract "efficiency" Make editorial decisions about what matters and why That's where I come in. Every post reflects my values, my research, my commitment. Dr. Shirley J. is the tool. I'm the craftsperson. You're the community I serve.

Welcome to the future of community journalism—human-centered, AI-assisted, justice-focused. Let me know your thoughts on AI. Drop me a comment or feedback below.

References

  1. AJMC. "5 Consequences If ACA Premium Subsidies End in 2026." The American Journal of Managed Care, 2024. Available at: https://www.ajmc.com/view/5-consequences-if-aca-premium-subsidies-end-in-2026
  2. KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation). "ACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More Than Double on Average Next Year if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire." October 2024. Available at: https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/aca-marketplace-premium-payments-would-more-than-double-on-average-next-year-if-enhanced-premium-tax-credits-expire/
  3. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "Understanding the ACA Subsidy Discussion." September 2024. Available at: https://www.crfb.org/blogs/understanding-aca-subsidy-discussion
  4. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. "Five Key Changes to ACA Marketplaces Amid Uncertainty Over Premium Tax Credit Enhancements." November 2024. Available at: https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/five-key-changes-to-aca-marketplaces-amid-uncertainty-over-premium-tax-credit
  5. American Hospital Association. "CBO: 2.2 Million Consumers Will Lose Insurance in 2026 if ACA Enhanced Premium Subsidies Expire." December 6, 2024. Available at: https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2024-12-06-cbo-22-million-consumers-will-lose-insurance-2026-if-aca-enhanced-premium-subsidies-expire
  6. The Guardian. "ACA/Obamacare subsidies expire amid Senate inaction." December 14, 2024. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/dec/14/aca-obamacare-expires
  7. Acquah, Nii-Annang. "Budget Reconciliation Cuts to the Social Safety Net and Their Impact on Black Households." Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, 2024. Available at: https://jointcenter.org/budget-reconciliation-cuts-to-the-social-safety-net-and-their-impact-on-black-households/
  8. Jones, Dominique D. "Shifting the Narrative on Industrial Policy: Opportunities for Genuine Economic Mobility and Good Jobs for Black Communities." Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, 2024. Available at: https://jointcenter.org/shifting-the-narrative-on-industrial-policy-opportunities-for-genuine-economic-mobility-and-good-jobs-for-black-communities/

Additional Data Sources

Baldwin Economic Justice Report — Financial News for the People

Empowering communities through knowledge, advocating for equity through action. #blackeconomics #wealthinequality #taxwealthnotwork #baldwineconomicjusticereport

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